In our detailed annual analysis, we shine a light on the new quadrant that emerged from the significant trend reversal on November 26, 2023. We focus on the zones where the strongest supports are located and predict when and under what circumstances a new all-time high (ATH) for Bitcoin seems realistic.
Review and Current Developments
The year 2023 proceeded, as predicted in our forecast (click here for the 2023 forecast), predominantly sideways within the color-marked fan ranges. After the impressive bull market between 2020 and 2021, this consolidation phase was essential for the market. A second, feared low for the trend reversal at the end of November did not materialize, raising the current maximum crash limit to $18,800.
Interestingly, shortly after the trend reversal, we broke through a superior Gann arc (light blue) and are now in a highly volatile area. As long as the price remains below the critical 45° fan, we must anticipate a potential approach to the light blue arc by February 14.
After a minor correction to the lower edge of the highly volatile area, overcoming the 45° fan could occur, with a target at the quadrant boundary of $47,239. The top would likely be reached around February 14, with a possible peak value of about $52,000. A subsequent correction would not fall below $31,750, with a low point around June 20.
If Bitcoin manages to thoroughly test through the HV (highly volatile) area, the greatest resistance would be at $57,866. In case of a failure, a correction above the 45° fan would ensue, with a maximum low point of also $31,000 by June 2024.
Should Bitcoin break through the highly volatile area in a bullish manner and surpass $57,866, it could trigger a similar rally to the one in 2020, leading us to $123,716 in the first attempt. However, for such a rise to occur, the price would need to gain momentum by no later than December 30.
Looking into 2024, a breakthrough to $123,000 could create strong support above $50,000, which is highly likely to be tested in May 2024. However, if the resistance is not surpassed, the price could move between $30,000 and $50,000 for another year. Until February 14, there is also the possibility of a major sell-off to $18,804.
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