Welcome to another Bitcoin Gann analysis!
We've now passed the annual trend reversal on March 1st and have yet to see any major movement. The strong bullish scenario did not materialize as expected, and we haven't even reached the upper edge of the current fan channel, which doesn't speak for great market interest. As we are currently moving in a very flat sideways market and this trend reversal appears to be just the beginning of it, we have prepared the following scenarios for you:
The first scenario, which we had already forecasted as the most likely in our last analysis, would now slowly move towards the first support fan. Before that, around March 7th, we encounter the superior Gann arc (green), which did not provoke any particularly big reaction at its first outer contact on February 17th.
Since we cannot rule out that there could still be a reaction, a test of the twenty thousand mark followed by a run-up to $26,962 seems likely. I do not see a surpassing of this mark at this time and consider it unlikely.
As this scenario has a soon expiry, we look at the longer-term ones that span the entire year.
A longer-term scenario in this green fan channel, which has already shown its relevance at the beginning of the quadrant, would play out something like this. The strong drop at the end does not necessarily have to be as massive, but would certainly be an incentive for many to re-enter the market. So, in this case, we can prepare for a year of drying up. For traders, a feast; for hodlers, rather sobering with subsequent capitulation.
I can exclude this bullish scenario with high probability. According to Gann, we should have reached the yellow fan area at least before the trend reversal for such a rally to unfold.
For breaking the twenty thousand mark, we would have the next subordinate trend reversal in sight on April 24. Should this scenario occur, we could at least settle for a quick and painless end to a prolonged sideways market. A subsequent quick switch by August into the yellow fan range would get us out of this current quagmire. The lower edge for such a sell-off lies at $11,666.
I hope the key markers are clear to you. I wish you a relaxed March.
